Today's analysis focuses on Rafael Nadal and Francisco Cerundolo during a practice session, highlighting potential tactics Rafa might employ in his quest for Olympic gold in Paris.

The following point exemplifies Nadal's strategic brilliance. By playing a simple, risk-averse pattern, he demonstrates a highly repeatable strategy that players at all levels can adopt. This point also serves as a lesson in capitalising on minor errors made by opponents, emphasising opponent awareness, court position, progressive advantage, and finishing points effectively.

Let's delve into the details!

SHOT 1: FRANCISCO’S RETURN POSITION

Observe Francisco's return position in the image below. It marks the beginning of the end.

His left foot is in the middle of the alley, while his right foot is just inside the singles court. Rafa, ever observant, notices this immediately.

Francisco should ideally have both feet in the alley, or even position his left foot outside the extended doubles line to counter Rafa’s extreme slice. The key here is that one cannot cover everything; hence, it is crucial to cover the server’s primary pattern. For Rafa, this is a wide serve in the Ad court. Francisco’s positioning, while somewhat wide, still requires him to move left if the serve is good, an approach that will ultimately prove detrimental.

SHOT 2: RAFA’S CAN OPENER

Francisco’s court position invites compromise right from the first shot of the rally.

Notice his contact point: both feet in the extended alley. This is where he will often contact Rafa's serve in the Ad court. The question arises: why didn’t he stand here initially?

With his weight and balance leaning out of the court, Francisco loses precious time recovering for his next shot and cannot put full weight behind the ball for a strong return. This is not an ideal start against the King of Clay. Francisco should start wider, enabling his energy to go forward to the ball, enhancing his return and allowing for smoother transition into the next shot.

SHOT 3: RAFA’S SERVE +1 FOREHAND

Francisco is now poorly positioned to counter Rafa's devastating Serve +1 forehand.

Francisco's return is suboptimal, landing in the middle of the court with little depth, time, or power to challenge Rafa. His stance and energy are misaligned; his body should be facing forward with feet wide apart for quick lateral movement. Instead, his feet are too close together, lacking the necessary shuffle steps for optimal speed.

SHOT 4: FRANCISCO’S DEFENSIVE FOREHAND

Francisco finds himself in a defensive stance.

Due to his inadequate initial position, Francisco had to move left, limiting his shot options and allowing Rafa to capitalize immediately. Now deep in the Deuce court, Francisco is forced to hit a defensive forehand slice while Rafa charges the net, closing in rapidly and leaving Francisco with limited escape routes.

SHOT 5: RAFA’S EASY BACKHAND VOLLEY

Francisco's predicament worsens.

Rafa is now slightly inside the service box with an easy backhand volley. Francisco, almost at the back fence, faces an insurmountable challenge to turn the point in his favor. Rafa’s strategic positioning throughout the rally has led to this advantageous position, whereas Francisco’s initial mispositioning has cost him dearly.

SHOT 6: FRANCISCO’S BACKHAND ERROR

Francisco’s final attempt ends in a missed backhand.

Despite his efforts, Francisco misses his backhand wide cross-court, unable to recover. Rafa, meanwhile, employed a high-percentage serve, a powerful Serve +1 forehand, and a straightforward volley to secure the point. Every move was calculated, repeatable, and aimed at gradually increasing the win probability rather than going for an all-or-nothing shot.

SUMMARY

Court position is paramount.

As a fellow lefty, I appreciate when opponents fail to stand wide enough in the Ad court to counter a slider serve. Conversely, when an opponent stands wide and visually negates my serve, it impacts my serve locations, often leading to more errors and second serve opportunities for the opponent, putting me at a disadvantage.

Here are five key takeaways:

1. Positioning matters; it can psych out opponents and force them to adjust their serve locations.
2. Prioritize covering the opponent's strengths over trying to cover everything.
3. Getting pulled off the court compromises your position for the next shot, creating vulnerabilities.
4. Avoid falling behind in the point; it's challenging to recover once you do.
5. When defending from near the fence, your winning chances are minimal. Using a high lob to buy time and regain court position is often more effective than attempting regular shots from such a disadvantageous position.

I hope you found this analysis insightful.