At the AO (Australian Open) 2021, Novak Djokovic hit his peak just when it mattered most.

Following his triumph over Aslan Karatsev with scores of 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the 2021 AO semi-finals, Djokovic expressed in the post-match conference, “I feel as best as I felt so far in the tournament. Physically and mentally as well. I was hitting the ball very well, mixing the pace. Didn’t give him the same looks at all. Always kind of kept him guessing and served well,” he remarked.

He continued, “I’m just very pleased with the performance. It came at the right time. Before the last match in a Grand Slam, couldn’t be better timing for me to play my best tennis.”

For Novak's fans, who are numerous (and noisy), this performance was particularly thrilling, especially after concerns about an injury and challenging matches against Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Milos Raonic, and Alexander Zverev to reach the semi-finals.

Given Djokovic's satisfaction with his semi-final match against Karatsev, one might wonder about the statistics from the game. Notably, he won with scores of 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. If Djokovic is in what he describes as "beast mode," what baseline play metrics might you expect?

Djokovic played 147 points in the match, securing 88 (60%) of them. Considering the number of forehand and backhand winners he might have hit over three sets, what comes to mind?

Would it be around 15 or maybe 20? To compare, Daniil Medvedev had 18 forehand and backhand winners in his match against Mackenzie McDonald, which had a similar scoreline. So, could Djokovic have exceeded 20 winners in his semi-final win?

Surprisingly, the number is not as high as one might guess.

After analysing the match (excluded returns, shots inside the service box, volleys, overheads) and counted only groundstroke winners from behind the service line, the actual number of groundstroke winners were astonish...

Novak Groundstroke Analysis vs. Karatsev 

Forehands

• Forehands Groundstrokes  = 104
• Forehand Winners = 4
• Forehand Errors = 11

Backhands 

• Backhand Groundstrokes = 107
• Backhand Winners = 3
• Backhand Errors = 9

Forehand & Backhands Combined

• Combined Groundstrokes = 207
• Combined Winners = 7
• Combined Errors = 20

Consider this: Djokovic is extremely pleased with his performance, yet he managed only seven winners from 207 groundstrokes. That number might seem small, especially for someone who appears to see the ball as clearly as he does.

This highlights a common misconception about what it means to play at one's peak, and it's not just about Djokovic. There's a tendency to associate playing well with hitting winners, but that's not necessarily accurate.

The essence of "Beast Novak" isn't about chasing down balls to hit blazing winners. His success doesn't come from aggressive shots alone. Instead, Djokovic thrives on making his opponents miss. He's like a chess master, always two moves ahead, forcing errors and dictating the pace and rhythm of the match.

Djokovic's true strength lies in his ability to control time and speed, manipulating the game in a way that extends beyond mere shot-making.

He strikes the ball with sufficient force to unsettle his opponent, maintaining a speed that ensures consistent play within the court. It's fast, but carefully moderated. 

His agility is remarkable, bordering on unbelievable. He possesses an intuitive understanding of the precise force needed to disconcert his opponent. Combined with his exceptional speed, this makes it nearly impossible for his adversary to outmaneuver him unless they deliver a perfect shot. His gameplay masterfully balances the speed of the ball and his movements, alongside the strategic use of angles, all to gain the upper hand. Achieving this harmony on the court brings him immense satisfaction.

BASELINE LOCATIONS A,B,C,D

The baseline is a big area. Different outcomes occur at different locations.

• When two right-handed players compete against each other, most balls flow from Position C to C. That’s where the traffic is.
• Position D is a building location where you look to be better off in the point after dispatching a quality shot to that corner.
• Most forehand and backhand winners go to A.
• Position B extracts a ton of errors if you can hit it deep, but you get severely punished if you don’t. Go to B at your own peril.

FOUR BASELINE LOCATIONS

BASELINE PERFORMANCE: NOVAK SERVING vs. ASLAN

The following metrics are all Novak serving to begin the point.

Forehands

• Position A = 28 hit / 4 errors
• Position B = 15 hit / 3 errors
• Position C = 15 hit / 1 error
• Position D = 1 hit / 0 errors
• TOTAL = 59 hit / 8 errors

It's evident that Aslan aimed to challenge Novak by targeting wide shots to Position A on his forehand. Furthermore, Novak managed to convert 15 backhands into forehands from Position C. Notably, Novak did not hit a single forehand groundstroke winner after starting the point with his serve. While this might typically be viewed unfavorably, it's important to recognise that Novak exited the court delighted with his performance. He appreciates the strategic approach that results in such statistics.

These statistics are commendable for Novak. Aslan consistently targeted Novak's backhand in Positions C and D. Achieving only seven errors out of 73 backhands is highly efficient.

BASELINE PERFORMANCE: NOVAK RETURNING vs. ASLAN

The following metrics are all Novak returning to begin the point.

Forehands

• Position A =  20 hit / 3 errors / 1 winner
• Position B =  17 hit / 0 errors / 1 winner
• Position C = 8 hit /  0 error / 2 winners
• Position D =  0 hit /
• TOTAL =  45 hit /  3 errors / 4 winners

When returning, Novak was not able to hit as many run-around forehands in C. When serving, he hit 15. When returning, he hit 8. Just a tougher dynamic when returning. Also, Novak had zero forehand winners when the point started with the serve. He had four when returning, signaling his intention to be more aggressive when returning.

Attack more when attacked.

Backhands 

• Position A =  0 hit
• Position B =  5 hit / 0 errors
• Position C =  11 hit / 0 error / 1 winner
• Position D = 18 hit / 2 errors / 1 winner
• TOTAL =  34 hit / 2 error / 2 winner

These are outstanding numbers for Novak. Typically, players are naturally more defensive when returning serve and more errors accumulate. To hit 34 total backhands with 2 errors and 2 winners canceling each other is a win in my book.

CONCLUSION

SUMMARY

Novak doesn't just hit the ball hard over and over. He also doesn't just play to tire you out. Instead, he plays smart, making you mess up and feel uneasy about shots you usually like. He mostly hits the ball across the court, waiting until he sees a good chance to hit it down the line. He likes making you run because he's really good at moving around the court. So, next time you watch Novak play and you see his opponent missing shots, it's because Novak is good at making that happen. And when Novak scores a direct point, it's just a bonus to his clever way of playing.

Embrace the challenge, cherish the game, and remember, at 10is Academy, every shot is an opportunity to improve.