In tennis, everyone obsesses over aces, winners, and unforced errors. But what if we’ve been missing the most important statistic all along? What if the first point of your service game is actually the most critical moment in a match—and yet, almost no one talks about it?

It's a controversial idea, but one that could revolutionize how we think about tennis strategy. Forget forehand winners for a second. What if the real key to winning is simply starting strong from the very first point?

Why the First Point Matters More Than You Think

Imagine stepping up to serve. Everyone expects you to think about your overall game plan, but what if the match hinges on just one thing—the first point? Winning it gives you immediate control, empowering you to take risks and dictate play. On the other hand, losing that first point means you’re already at a disadvantage, feeling like you’re scrambling to keep up.

In a recent high-stakes final, one player dominated the first point in most of their service games. The other? They started down 0-15 in half of their service games, and it showed. The result was a match where the scoreboard pressure broke one player, while the other sailed through with ease.

Isn't it time we questioned why such a crucial stat has been ignored?

The Psychological Weight of 0-15: Are Players Underestimating It?

Here’s something to consider: when a player starts their service game at 0-15, the pressure is immediate and intense. It’s not just about playing catch-up—it’s about feeling like you’re constantly on the defensive. Every shot suddenly carries more weight, every mistake feels more costly.

Yet, why isn’t this stat discussed more? The data is there. When players start at 15-0, they hold serve around 90% of the time. When they fall to 0-15, those odds plummet dramatically. One recent final saw a player hold serve only 25% of the time when starting 0-15—compared to 92% when ahead 15-0. Why aren’t we talking about this?

The First Point: The Real Momentum Shifter?

It’s almost scandalous to think about: the first point is routinely overlooked as just a small part of the game, but it has the power to shape the outcome of an entire match. It’s not about flashy winners or daring net play—it’s about that one seemingly insignificant point that can give you breathing room or bury you under scoreboard pressure.

Why isn’t this the focus of more coaching? If winning the first point increases your chances of holding serve by such a large margin, it should be at the forefront of every player's mind. But instead, we focus on traditional metrics that might not tell the whole story.

The Takeaway: Is Tennis Strategy Stuck in the Past?

Should we rethink how we teach and analyze tennis? Focusing on aces, winners, and flashy rallies may be exciting, but are we missing the stat that could actually change a player’s approach to winning matches?

If you want to win more, focus on the first point of every service game. It’s the ultimate momentum builder, and it can make or break your game. Whether you're a recreational player or a professional, understanding and prioritizing this stat could completely shift your approach to the sport.

Are coaches and analysts too caught up in tradition to recognize the true value of the first point?

Time to Challenge the Status Quo

The real question is: will you embrace this underappreciated stat or stick to conventional wisdom? We’ve been blinded by the same old stats for too long. Now that the data is in front of you, it’s time to ask: How will you use this knowledge to your advantage?

Let us know your thoughts—email us at admin@10is.co.uk. Challenge the status quo, and let’s get the debate started.